Market
What will be the outcome of US-China diplomatic discussions on the cybersecurity breach by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ongoing discussions • 25%
Discussions ended • 25%
Official statements from US or Chinese government
Story
US Treasury Reports Chinese Hackers Stole Documents in 'Major' Cybersecurity Breach
Dec 30, 2024, 10:28 PM
The US Treasury Department reported that Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached its systems earlier this month, gaining access to employee workstations and unclassified documents in what it described as a 'major cybersecurity incident'. The breach, which occurred after hackers compromised a security key from third-party software provider BeyondTrust, was discovered on December 8. Treasury officials informed Congress on Monday, stating that the attackers, identified as an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group, no longer have access to the systems. The department is collaborating with the FBI and other agencies to investigate the incident.
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Resolution Reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No official talks • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of sanctions • 25%
New cybersecurity agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased cyber sanctions • 25%
Escalation of cyber conflict • 25%
Cybersecurity collaboration • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic conflict • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Continued accusations without resolution • 25%
Bilateral cybersecurity agreement • 25%
Increased tensions and potential sanctions • 25%
