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What will be the state of the Assad regime by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
Regime change without Assad stepping down • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Iran Requests Safe Passage for Troops and Protection of Shiite Shrines from HTS, Citing Two Iranian Officials
Dec 7, 2024, 09:43 PM
Iran has requested the Syrian opposition, specifically the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to allow safe passage for its troops to exit Syria and to ensure the protection of Shiite shrines. This request comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iranian forces and advancing Syrian rebels, as reported by multiple Iranian officials and covered by The New York Times. An internal memo from a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the situation in Syria as 'unbelievable and strange,' suggesting a shift in Iran's stance towards the Assad regime. The memo indicated that Iran may have accepted the fall of Assad and is losing the will to resist, reflecting a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict.
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Transition of Power • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Regime overthrown • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Loses significant territory • 25%
Maintains current control • 25%
Regains full control • 25%
Regime collapse • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Regains significant power • 25%
Continues to hold some territories • 25%
Reduced to minor factions • 25%
Complete collapse • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased territorial control • 25%
Loss of major cities • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Other • 25%
In exile • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Resigned voluntarily • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
Military coup • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%