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Will Iran secure safe passage for troops out of Syria by March 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Iranian or Syrian opposition sources, or credible news outlets like The New York Times
Story
Iran Requests Safe Passage for Troops and Protection of Shiite Shrines from HTS, Citing Two Iranian Officials
Dec 7, 2024, 09:43 PM
Iran has requested the Syrian opposition, specifically the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to allow safe passage for its troops to exit Syria and to ensure the protection of Shiite shrines. This request comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iranian forces and advancing Syrian rebels, as reported by multiple Iranian officials and covered by The New York Times. An internal memo from a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the situation in Syria as 'unbelievable and strange,' suggesting a shift in Iran's stance towards the Assad regime. The memo indicated that Iran may have accepted the fall of Assad and is losing the will to resist, reflecting a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Safe passage granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Safe passage denied • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Reinforcement and return of forces • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no return • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Partial withdrawal with some return • 25%
