Market
What will be Assad's status in Syria by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Still in power • 25%
In exile • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Syrian government or credible news reports
Story
Assad Seeks U.S. Support, Offers to Cut Ties with Iran, Hezbollah Amid Opposition Pressure
Dec 7, 2024, 07:22 PM
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly reached out to the United States through back-channels in the United Arab Emirates, offering to sever all ties with Iran and Hezbollah. This proposal comes with the condition that the U.S. and Western countries assist Assad in remaining in power or ensuring his safe exit. Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources, that Assad is seeking an agreement that would either allow him to retain control over the remaining areas under his authority or secure his safe exile if necessary. The offer was made amidst increasing pressure from opposition forces entering Damascus, signaling Assad's desperation to negotiate a deal.
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Regime overthrown • 25%
Regime remains in power • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Regime transitions to new leadership • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
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Retires from politics • 25%
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Exiled • 25%
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Ousted • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
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Assad remains in power • 25%
Stable • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
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Non-sectarian government established • 25%
