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What will be Iran's military presence in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Reports from military analysts and credible news outlets
Story
Iran Requests Safe Passage for Troops and Protection of Shiite Shrines from HTS, Citing Two Iranian Officials
Dec 7, 2024, 09:43 PM
Iran has requested the Syrian opposition, specifically the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to allow safe passage for its troops to exit Syria and to ensure the protection of Shiite shrines. This request comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iranian forces and advancing Syrian rebels, as reported by multiple Iranian officials and covered by The New York Times. An internal memo from a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the situation in Syria as 'unbelievable and strange,' suggesting a shift in Iran's stance towards the Assad regime. The memo indicated that Iran may have accepted the fall of Assad and is losing the will to resist, reflecting a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict.
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No change in involvement • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decreased military involvement • 25%
Deploy ground forces • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Provide missile and drone support • 25%
Increase advisors only • 25%
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Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Partial presence • 25%
Full presence maintained • 25%
Troop deployment • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Humanitarian aid only • 25%
Military advisors only • 25%
Completely withdrawn • 25%
No change in presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Partially withdrawn • 25%