Market
What will be the resolution of the political crisis involving martial law and impeachment by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Crisis resolved with Yoon in office • 25%
Yoon impeached • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
No resolution by year-end • 25%
Major South Korean news outlets
Story
South Korea’s President Yoon Denies Rebellion Charges, Vows to ‘Fight to the End’ After Last Week's Martial Law; Ruling Party Leader Calls for Impeachment
Dec 12, 2024, 01:53 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has defended his declaration of martial law last week, asserting it was a legal move to protect democracy amid accusations of election hacking by North Korea. Denying rebellion charges, Yoon labeled the opposition as 'anti-state forces' who 'paralyze state affairs', and vowed to 'fight to the end' while refusing to resign. He stated that he only discussed the martial law declaration with the defense minister. The ruling party leader, Han Dong-hoon, has called for Yoon's impeachment, highlighting deep divisions within the ruling party. Police investigations into the martial law declaration are ongoing, with authorities unable to enter the president's office, and military officials involved being suspended from duties. Additionally, the former defense minister attempted suicide while in custody over the martial law case.
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Convictions for all key officials • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Convictions for some key officials • 25%
No convictions • 25%
Strengthens opposition • 25%
Strengthens ruling party • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon exonerated • 25%
Yoon found guilty • 25%
No action taken • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Kim Yong-hyun charged • 25%
Both Kim and President Yoon charged • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
President Yoon charged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No action taken • 25%
President Yoon found guilty • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
President Yoon cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
Formal charges filed • 25%
Travel ban only • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Impeachment Passed • 25%
Impeachment Failed • 25%
Yoon Resigned Before Conclusion • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Guilty of all charges • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Guilty of some charges • 25%
New evidence introduced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeachment inquiry dropped • 25%
Impeachment inquiry continues • 25%