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What will be the outcome of the Biden impeachment inquiry by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Impeachment inquiry dropped • 25%
Impeachment inquiry continues • 25%
New evidence introduced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official congressional records or announcements
Story
Former FBI Informant Alexander Smirnov Pleads Guilty to Four Felony Charges, Facing 48 to 72 Months for Lying About Biden Bribery Scheme
Dec 16, 2024, 08:19 PM
Alexander Smirnov, a former FBI informant, pleaded guilty on December 16 to lying about a fabricated bribery scheme involving President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. This scheme was central to the Republican impeachment inquiry against President Biden. Smirnov's guilty plea includes four felony charges related to falsifying statements to federal authorities, as well as unrelated tax evasion charges stemming from accusations of concealing millions of dollars in income. The false claims made by Smirnov were initially reported in June 2020 and were leveraged by Republican lawmakers in their attempts to impeach the president. The plea was entered in Los Angeles, with Smirnov facing a potential sentence of 48 to 72 months in prison. His allegations had significant political implications, contributing to the narrative surrounding Biden's interactions with a Ukrainian energy company.
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No action taken • 25%
Formal impeachment charges • 25%
Censure • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Inquiry leads to censure • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Censure • 25%
Impeachment • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal impeachment proceedings initiated • 25%
Inquiry closed with no action • 25%
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Impeachment • 25%
Censure • 25%
No charges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No impeachment proceedings initiated • 25%
Impeachment passed by House, not convicted by Senate • 25%
Impeachment not passed by House • 25%
Impeachment passed by House and convicted by Senate • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No evidence of political persecution • 25%
Some evidence, no action • 25%
Evidence leading to policy changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Evidence found, no charges • 25%
No evidence found • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Evidence found, charges filed • 25%
Investigation leading to charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Investigation with no charges • 25%
No investigation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Investigation concluded with no charges • 25%
Investigation concluded with charges • 25%
No new investigation • 25%
Investigation initiated • 25%