Market
What will be the impact of the martial law investigation on South Korean politics by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthens opposition • 25%
Strengthens ruling party • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Analysis by political experts in major news outlets or academic publications
Story
South Korean Authorities Attempt Raid on Yoon Suk-yeol's Security Service on December 17 Amid Martial Law Probe
Dec 17, 2024, 07:07 AM
South Korean authorities have made a renewed attempt to raid the presidential office as part of an investigation into the legality of President Yoon Suk-yeol's recent proposal to impose martial law. The operation, reported by Yonhap, involves a joint investigation team that includes police and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials. Investigators are seeking access to computer servers of the presidential office's security service to obtain records, including those related to the police commissioner. This marks another effort by authorities to gather evidence in the ongoing probe regarding the controversial actions taken by President Yoon.
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Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strained relations with allies • 25%
Improved relations with certain countries • 25%
Cabinet reshuffle • 25%
President Yoon steps down • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Ongoing unrest • 25%
Martial law lifted • 25%
Martial law extended • 25%
Government transition • 25%
Additional indictments • 25%
Public inquiry • 25%
No further action • 25%
Policy reforms • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal charges filed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No action taken • 25%
President Yoon found guilty • 25%
President Yoon cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
Travel ban only • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Guilty of some charges • 25%
Guilty of all charges • 25%
Charges filed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Strengthening of current government • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Major shift towards opposition • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Martial law lifted • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Government overthrown • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%