Market
What will be the primary source of undersea cable damage in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Commercial vessels • 25%
Natural disasters • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Annual reports from maritime safety organizations
Story
U.S. and European Intelligence Conclude Baltic Sea Cable Damage Due to Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage: Washington Post
Jan 19, 2025, 02:01 PM
U.S. and European intelligence agencies have concluded that recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was the result of accidents, not Russian sabotage, according to reports from The Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence that the commercial vessels suspected of dragging anchors across the seabed did so intentionally or under orders from Moscow. Instead, the damage is attributed to inexperienced crews operating poorly maintained ships. This conclusion is supported by multiple unnamed U.S. and European intelligence officials.
View original story
Similar markets
0 incidents • 25%
1-2 incidents • 25%
5 or more incidents • 25%
3-4 incidents • 25%
Undetermined cause • 25%
Other nation-state involvement • 25%
Russian sabotage • 25%
Accidental maritime incident • 25%
State-sponsored actors • 25%
Unknown or unreported • 25%
Environmental factors • 25%
Non-state actors • 25%
Data transmission issues • 25%
Cable breakage • 25%
Power supply failure • 25%
No major issues reported • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Hydro • 25%
Other • 25%
Solar • 25%
Wind • 25%
Gas pipelines • 25%
Communication cables • 25%
No new damage reported • 25%
Power cables • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Legal actions against Shunxin39 • 25%
Diplomatic actions against China • 25%
Increased maritime security measures • 25%
No additional actions taken • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Accidental Damage • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Natural Causes • 25%