Market
What will be the outcome of US foreign policy shift in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
US fully withdraws from Syria • 25%
US maintains limited presence • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from major geopolitical think tanks or reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Signals End to US Involvement in Syria, Cites 600,000 Russian Troop Losses
Dec 7, 2024, 06:20 PM
US President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a shift in US foreign policy regarding Syria. Trump stated that the US would cease involvement in Syria’s civil war, suggesting a possible end to support for Kurdish-led forces in the region. He emphasized that Syria is 'not our fight' and that events there should unfold without US intervention. Trump also stated 'Do Not Get Involved,' highlighting a non-interventionist stance. Additionally, he pointed out Russia's weakened position due to its war in Ukraine, claiming that Russia has lost over 600,000 troops and is unable to effectively support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This marks a potential departure from previous US policies in the region.
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Similar markets
Maintaining current policy • 25%
Increased support for Syrian groups • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased support for Turkey's stance • 25%
Less supportive of Türkiye's position • 25%
No change • 25%
Unclear • 25%
More supportive of Türkiye's position • 25%
Military support to rebels • 25%
Continued non-involvement • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Sanctions on Syria • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increase • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increase in troop numbers • 25%
Reduction to core 900 troops • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
More foreign bases allowed • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Successful transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Strengthened U.S. Presence • 25%
Continued Chaos • 25%
Increased Stability • 25%
Withdrawal of U.S. Forces • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%