Market
Outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts in Syria by end of 2025?
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Antony Blinken•Iraq•Syria•Blinken•Iraqi•Baghdad•Assad Syria•Middle East•Islamic State•Bahrain•Arab League
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Official U.S. State Department releases or credible international news reports
Story
Blinken Makes Unannounced Visit to Iraq to Coordinate Post-Assad Syria Strategy
Dec 13, 2024, 01:55 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unannounced visit to Iraq on Friday to discuss the future of Syria following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. Blinken met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad to coordinate a regional approach to stabilize post-Assad Syria, emphasizing the need for Iraq to enhance its sovereignty and stability. This visit is part of Blinken's 12th trip to the Middle East since the Israel-Hamas war began, focusing on preventing further regional turmoil and ensuring a peaceful political transition in Syria. The U.S. aims to support an inclusive transition in Syria that does not allow the Islamic State group to regain influence or territory, and Blinken underscored the U.S. commitment to the U.S.-Iraq strategic partnership. Discussions also touched on regional security, with Bahrain expressing willingness to support Syria in international organizations like the Arab League.
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Similar markets
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Strengthened U.S. Presence • 25%
Increased Stability • 25%
Continued Chaos • 25%
Withdrawal of U.S. Forces • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased military intervention • 25%
Successful peace talks • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Maintained current strategy • 25%
Increase in troop numbers • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Reduction to core 900 troops • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
U.S. withdrawal from Syria • 25%
Increased U.S. military involvement • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in ISIS activity • 25%
Increased military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
New government established • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
US fully withdraws from Syria • 25%
No significant change • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
US maintains limited presence • 25%
Israel retreats • 25%
Qatar mediates a settlement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
UN forces deployed • 25%