Market
Will Cuba respond positively to its removal from the U.S. terrorism list by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statement from the Cuban government or major news outlets reporting on Cuba's response
Story
Biden Administration to Remove Cuba From State Sponsors of Terrorism List, Suspend Title III in Final Days
Jan 14, 2025, 06:52 PM
The Biden administration is poised to remove Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism in its final days in office, according to multiple U.S. officials familiar with the matter. This decision comes after more than 1,400 days since 80 House Democrats urged President Biden to reverse the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. The move is expected to be announced soon, with a senior Biden administration official confirming that there is no information supporting Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Additionally, the administration plans to suspend Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, which has had significant economic repercussions for Cuba.
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January 2025 • 25%
March 2025 • 25%
Not by March 2025 • 25%
February 2025 • 25%
Negative response from EU • 25%
Negative response from Latin America • 25%
Positive response from EU • 25%
Positive response from Latin America • 25%
Removal confirmed and sustained • 25%
Removal confirmed but reversed • 25%
Removal blocked by Congress • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Strengthening ties with US adversaries • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with US • 25%
Reversal by Trump administration • 25%
U.S.-Cuba relations improve • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%