Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's potential military action in Kobani by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey gains control of Kobani • 25%
Kurdish forces retain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from major news outlets on the situation in Kobani
Story
Turkey Masses Troops Near Kobani, Raising Fears of Imminent Incursion into Kurdish Territory
Dec 17, 2024, 06:52 AM
Turkey and its allied militias are reportedly amassing forces along the border with Syria, including near the city of Kobani, raising concerns among senior U.S. officials that Ankara is preparing for an imminent large-scale incursion into territory held by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds. The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials expressing alarm over the potential operation. Turkish forces, including commandos and artillery, have been observed near Kobani (also known as Ayn al-Arab). Kurdish officials have expressed concern and urged for international intervention to prevent the potential offensive.
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Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Limited military action • 25%
Full-scale incursion • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Turkey attacks Kobane • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Turkey retreats from threats • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
