Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's demand for Syrian action against Kurdish groups by December 31, 2025?
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Turkey•Hakan Fidan•Syrian•Ankara•Kurdish•Fidan•Yaşar Güler•Metin Gürak•Gaziantep•Kilis•Güler•Syria•Syrian National Army•Tel Rifat•Manbij•ISIS•Turkish army
Resolution / Starting Odds
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Official statements from Turkey, Syria, or credible international news agencies
Story
Turkey Vows 'Whatever It Takes' Against Kurdish Groups if Syria Fails to Act
Dec 22, 2024, 08:55 AM
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan declared that Turkey will do "whatever it takes," including military action, to ensure its security if the new Syrian administration cannot address Ankara's concerns about US-allied Kurdish groups, specifically the YPG/PKK, which Turkey considers terrorist organizations. Fidan emphasized Turkey's expectation that the Syrian government will deal with the presence of these groups. Turkey's Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, accompanied by Chief of General Staff General Metin Gürak and other top military commanders, visited Gaziantep and Kilis near the Syrian border for inspections. Güler stated that the elimination of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization is a priority for Turkey and affirmed, "When the pressure of the terrorist organization is lifted and the displaced local population returns home, the true demographic structure of Syria will emerge." He expressed confidence that the Syrian National Army will reclaim all territories occupied by terrorist groups, noting that Tel Rifat and Manbij were cleared of YPG/PKK terrorists on 2 December and 9 December, respectively. Güler also highlighted that there is no place for terrorist organizations like the PKK/YPG and ISIS in Syria's future and stated that the Turkish army is the only one fighting ISIS directly on the ground. He affirmed Turkey's commitment to contributing to stability in Syria and facilitating the honorable return of refugees.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
Turkey launches military operation • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Sanctions imposed by EU • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%