Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's demand for Syria to disband the YPG by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Syria disbands YPG • 25%
Turkey conducts military action • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Official announcements from the Turkish and Syrian governments or credible international news agencies
Story
Hakan Fidan: Turkey Warns Syria to Disband Kurdish YPG by December 22 or Face Military Action for National Security
Dec 22, 2024, 02:50 AM
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has issued a stern warning to Syria's new government regarding the Kurdish militia, specifically the YPG, which Turkey associates with the PKK, a designated terrorist organization. Fidan stated that if the Syrian administration fails to disband the YPG and address Ankara's security concerns, Turkey will take necessary military action to ensure its national security. This declaration underscores Turkey's ongoing tensions with Kurdish groups in the region, which it views as a direct threat. Fidan emphasized that Turkey would do 'whatever it takes' to secure its interests if the situation is not resolved.
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Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Turkey launches military operation • 25%
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Military Operation Launched • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution Achieved • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG increases territorial control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG maintains current stance • 25%
YPG disbands and surrenders arms • 25%