Market
What will be the demographic structure of Syria by December 31, 2025, as claimed by Turkey?
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Turkey•Hakan Fidan•Syrian•Ankara•Kurdish•Fidan•Yaşar Güler•Metin Gürak•Gaziantep•Kilis•Güler•Syria•Syrian National Army•Tel Rifat•Manbij•ISIS•Turkish army
Resolution / Starting Odds
Restored to pre-conflict demographics • 25%
Altered by refugee return • 25%
Unchanged from current state • 25%
Further altered by conflict • 25%
Reports from international organizations or credible demographic studies
Story
Turkey Vows 'Whatever It Takes' Against Kurdish Groups if Syria Fails to Act
Dec 22, 2024, 08:55 AM
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan declared that Turkey will do "whatever it takes," including military action, to ensure its security if the new Syrian administration cannot address Ankara's concerns about US-allied Kurdish groups, specifically the YPG/PKK, which Turkey considers terrorist organizations. Fidan emphasized Turkey's expectation that the Syrian government will deal with the presence of these groups. Turkey's Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, accompanied by Chief of General Staff General Metin Gürak and other top military commanders, visited Gaziantep and Kilis near the Syrian border for inspections. Güler stated that the elimination of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization is a priority for Turkey and affirmed, "When the pressure of the terrorist organization is lifted and the displaced local population returns home, the true demographic structure of Syria will emerge." He expressed confidence that the Syrian National Army will reclaim all territories occupied by terrorist groups, noting that Tel Rifat and Manbij were cleared of YPG/PKK terrorists on 2 December and 9 December, respectively. Güler also highlighted that there is no place for terrorist organizations like the PKK/YPG and ISIS in Syria's future and stated that the Turkish army is the only one fighting ISIS directly on the ground. He affirmed Turkey's commitment to contributing to stability in Syria and facilitating the honorable return of refugees.
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3.5 million to 4 million • 25%
More than 4 million • 25%
3 million to 3.5 million • 25%
Less than 3 million • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved stability • 25%
No significant return • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Majority return • 25%
Minority return • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Other status • 25%
Increase • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
More than 150,000 • 25%
100,001 to 150,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
More than 400,000 • 25%
Less than 200,000 • 25%
200,000 to 300,000 • 25%
300,001 to 400,000 • 25%
Improved refugee return rates • 25%
Enhanced infrastructure • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased energy production • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%