Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations sale by February 26, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Microsoft acquires • 25%
Another company acquires • 25%
No sale, TikTok banned • 25%
No sale, TikTok not banned • 25%
Official announcements from involved companies or U.S. government
Story
Trump Confirms Microsoft in Talks to Acquire TikTok; Expects Bidding War in 30 Days
Jan 27, 2025, 10:48 PM
President Donald Trump announced that he is in discussions with multiple parties regarding the sale of TikTok, with a decision expected within the next 30 days. Trump confirmed that Microsoft is among the interested companies but denied speaking with Oracle's Larry Ellison about a potential acquisition. He stated that he anticipates a competitive bidding process for the popular social media app, emphasizing that he does not want China involved in TikTok's future operations in the United States. The potential acquisition comes as the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, faces pressure to divest its U.S. operations to avoid a ban.
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Banned with no sale • 25%
No change in ownership • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast and Jesse Tinsley's group • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
MrBeast's group wins bid • 25%
Bid is extended • 25%
No sale occurs • 25%
Another group wins bid • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast-led group • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok remains operational • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok banned • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Other • 25%
ByteDance retains majority • 25%
Other • 25%
Oracle acquires • 25%
U.S. investors group acquires • 25%