Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by April 6, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, TikTok, or the U.S. government
Story
Trump Delays TikTok Ban for 75 Days, Citing Need for Review and Possible U.S. Ownership
Jan 21, 2025, 04:42 AM
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday, delaying the enforcement of a ban on TikTok for 75 days. The order was issued to allow his administration time to determine the appropriate course of action regarding the popular short-video app, which was slated to be shuttered on January 19. The move comes after the Supreme Court upheld the ban, and follows a brief period where TikTok was unavailable to U.S. users. Trump's order directs the Attorney General not to enforce the law during this period, and also instructs the Justice Department not to impose penalties for noncompliance with the ban. The delay provides TikTok's China-based parent company, ByteDance, additional time to find a U.S. buyer or negotiate a deal that could involve U.S. government ownership of the app.
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Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
No change in ownership • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast and Jesse Tinsley's group • 25%
Banned with no sale • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok remains operational • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast-led group • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Extension granted, TikTok operates • 25%
No change, TikTok operates as is • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Continues without restrictions • 25%
Banned • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%