Market
What will be the outcome for TikTok's U.S. operations by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, TikTok, or U.S. government
Story
Supreme Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban Starting Sunday Unless ByteDance Divests
Jan 17, 2025, 03:08 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has unanimously upheld, in a 9-0 decision, a federal law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest from the popular social media app by Sunday, January 19th, or face a nationwide ban. The ruling, which rejected TikTok's First Amendment challenge, allows the divest-or-ban law to go into effect as scheduled. The Court cited national security concerns over data collection practices and Chinese control of the app. The ban, set to begin this Sunday, could potentially affect TikTok's 170 million American users unless ByteDance complies with the divestment requirement.
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Acquired by another entity • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
Other acquisition • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%