Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. legal battle by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings and official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government
Story
TikTok Appeals to Supreme Court to Block U.S. Ban by Jan. 19, Amid Trump's Support
Dec 17, 2024, 05:47 PM
TikTok has filed an emergency application with the U.S. Supreme Court to block a federal law that mandates the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its holdings by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the U.S. The company argues that the law violates the First Amendment and would affect its 170 million American users. Amidst this legal battle, President-elect Donald Trump met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at Mar-a-Lago, signaling a potential openness to stopping the ban. Trump has expressed a 'warm spot' for TikTok, citing its role in his recent election success among young voters. The law, passed by Congress in April, stems from concerns over national security risks posed by TikTok's data collection and potential content manipulation by the Chinese government. A federal appeals court upheld the law earlier this month, rejecting TikTok's First Amendment claims.
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Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Ban Upheld • 33%
Ban Overturned • 33%
Settlement Reached • 34%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%