Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. legal and divestment efforts by January 19, 2025?
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TikTok•Chinese•ByteDance•Department of Justice•Americans•Supreme Court•First Amendment•House Select Committee•Chinese Communist Party•Apple•Google
Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government, ByteDance, or major news outlets
Story
Appeals Court Denies TikTok's Bid; Ban Set for January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests
Dec 13, 2024, 11:02 PM
A U.S. federal appeals court has rejected TikTok's bid to temporarily block the Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, a law that could result in a ban of the app next month. The law, set to take effect on January 19, requires TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its U.S. operations or face a nationwide ban. The Department of Justice argued that TikTok is downplaying national security concerns associated with its Chinese ownership. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, plans to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, asserting that the law violates the First Amendment. Meanwhile, lawmakers from the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party have urged Apple and Google to prepare to remove TikTok from their app stores by the January deadline. The D.C. Circuit Court's decision brings TikTok one step closer to a potential ban, significantly impacting the platform's future in the U.S.
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Extension granted • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
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Nationwide ban enforced • 25%
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Successful divestiture • 25%
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Settlement reached • 25%
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TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
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Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
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Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
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Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
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Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
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Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
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Deadline extended • 34%
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Deal Canceled • 25%
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TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%