Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's legal challenge against the U.S. ban by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Court rulings and official statements from TikTok or the DOJ
Story
DOJ Urges Court to Reject TikTok's Bid to Block U.S. Ban, Citing National Security
Dec 13, 2024, 03:15 AM
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has asked a U.S. appeals court to reject TikTok's effort to block a law that would force the company to divest from its Chinese-based parent company, ByteDance, or face a ban in the U.S. on January 19, 2025. The law, signed by President Joe Biden, aims to address national security concerns related to data collection and potential content manipulation by the Chinese government. TikTok has filed an emergency motion to halt the ban, arguing that a small delay would not cause serious national security concerns. The DOJ contends that the continued control of TikTok by ByteDance poses a significant threat to national security. Despite President-elect Donald Trump's campaign promise not to support a TikTok ban, the company has expressed its intent to appeal the decision, citing the platform's popularity and its role as a major speech platform in the U.S.
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Other outcome • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
Ban Overturned • 33%
Settlement Reached • 34%
Ban Upheld • 33%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
US government wins • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%