Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's legal battle against the US ban by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings or official announcements
Story
On Monday, TikTok and ByteDance Seek Emergency Halt of US Ban Until Trump Takes Office
Dec 10, 2024, 10:00 AM
On Monday, TikTok and its parent company ByteDance filed an emergency motion with a federal appeals court to block a US ban on the popular social media app. The companies are seeking an injunction to prevent enforcement of a law that would force TikTok to divest or face a ban in the United States. They request that the ban be halted until the Supreme Court can review the legislation or until President-elect Donald Trump takes office. If the law is not overturned by the mid-January deadline, TikTok and ByteDance have indicated that the app will shut down in the US. President-elect Trump has vowed to protect TikTok from the ban, but analysts warn he may face legal challenges in doing so.
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Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Ban Overturned • 33%
Ban Upheld • 33%
Settlement Reached • 34%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
US government wins • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Ongoing legal battle • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
TikTok divested • 34%
TikTok banned • 33%