Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's compliance with US law by April 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to a US company • 25%
Sold to a non-US company • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or acquiring companies, or credible news reports
Story
Trump Considers 90-Day Extension for TikTok Amid Supreme Court Ruling, ByteDance Sale
Jan 18, 2025, 07:14 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he is likely to grant TikTok a 90-day extension to avoid a ban in the United States. In an interview with NBC News, Trump stated that the extension is under serious consideration and would be appropriate, though he has not yet made a final decision. The extension would allow ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, more time to divest the platform to a non-Chinese buyer. This comes as a federal law, upheld by the Supreme Court, requires TikTok to be sold or face a ban due to national security concerns. The law, set to take effect on January 19, 2025, allows the president to grant a 90-day extension under specific conditions. TikTok has warned it may go dark on January 19 unless the Biden administration provides assurances that the law will not be enforced against service providers.
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Similar markets
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Other • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
Banned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Modified restrictions • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mandate rescinded • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Mandate extended • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Divestment completed • 33%
Ban implemented • 33%
Deadline extended • 34%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%