Market
What will be the outcome of the US Congress mandate on TikTok by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Divestment completed • 25%
Mandate extended • 25%
Mandate rescinded • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from US Congress, Trump administration, and ByteDance
Story
Biden Leaves TikTok Ban Decision to Trump, Set for Jan. 19
Jan 17, 2025, 01:54 AM
President Joe Biden will not enforce a ban on the social media app TikTok that was set to take effect a day before his departure from office on Monday, according to a U.S. official. The decision leaves the fate of the app in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump. Congress had mandated that TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divest the app by Jan. 19, but the outgoing administration has opted to defer the implementation of the law to the incoming Trump administration. Trump, who previously advocated for banning TikTok, has now pledged to keep it operational in the U.S., though his transition team has not detailed how they plan to achieve this. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is expected to attend Trump's inauguration, signaling potential efforts by the incoming administration to prevent the app's shutdown.
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Not sold, not banned • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Sold to a non-US company • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Ban extension • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
Deal for U.S. ownership • 25%
No change • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Ban remains in effect • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary reprieve granted • 25%
Ban lifted permanently • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
No action taken • 25%
No action • 25%
Regulation • 25%
Ban • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban TikTok • 25%
Order issued and enforced • 25%
Order issued but rescinded • 25%
Order not issued • 25%
Order issued but legally blocked • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
TikTok remains available • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
No decision • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban TikTok • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Restrict TikTok • 25%