Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Taliban prisoner swap negotiations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or verified news reports
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates Swap of Three Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner Linked to Osama bin Laden
Jan 7, 2025, 12:13 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three Americans detained in Afghanistan since 2022. In exchange, the U.S. is considering releasing a high-profile prisoner from Guantanamo Bay, who is alleged to be an associate of Osama bin Laden. The discussions aim to facilitate a prisoner swap, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful swap completed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
Formal diplomatic recognition • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
Exchange Completed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Agreement cancelled • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Completed as agreed • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Peace talks • 25%