Market
What will be the outcome of the hostage and prisoner exchange by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Exchange Completed • 25%
Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli and Palestinian authorities or reputable news sources
Story
Minister Ben-Gvir to Resign if Gaza Ceasefire Deal Approved, Calls Agreement 'Disgrace'
Jan 16, 2025, 07:26 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government over a proposed ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza. The deal, reportedly brokered by Qatar, involves the release of 33 Israeli hostages and 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. In a press conference held at 9:00 PM, Ben-Gvir declared, 'This deal is a disgrace,' and announced that if the cabinet approves the agreement, he and his Otzma Yehudit party will resign from the coalition. He added that if the war against Hamas resumes, they may return to the government. Ben-Gvir's potential resignation underscores internal divisions within the Israeli government regarding the handling of the conflict in Gaza. The cabinet is expected to meet tomorrow to discuss the deal.
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Similar markets
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Extended beyond deadline • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage status unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Agreement cancelled • 25%
Completed as agreed • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
21-33 hostages • 25%
More than 33 hostages • 25%
11-20 hostages • 25%
0-10 hostages • 25%