Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Taliban prisoner swap negotiations by March 31, 2025?
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Biden•Taliban•American•Ryan Corbett•George Glezmann•Mahmoud Habibi•Afghanistan•Afghan•al Qaeda•Guantanamo•Jake Sullivan•House Foreign Affairs Committee•Oman
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful swap completed • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news outlets
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates With Taliban to Swap Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, Mahmoud Habibi for Guantanamo's Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani
Jan 7, 2025, 12:25 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three American citizens, Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, and Mahmoud Habibi, detained in Afghanistan in 2022, in exchange for Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani, an Afghan man alleged to be a high-level operative of al Qaeda, who has been detained at Guantanamo since 2008. The talks, ongoing since July 2024, were discussed in a classified briefing by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. This development follows the Biden administration's recent transfer of 11 Guantanamo detainees to Oman, part of an effort to reduce the prison population as the president prepares to leave office on January 20, 2025.
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Similar markets
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Accepts proposal • 25%
Rejects proposal • 25%
Proposes counter-offer • 25%
No official response • 25%
Exchange Completed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Completed as agreed • 25%
Agreement cancelled • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
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Extended beyond deadline • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic recognition • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
