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What will be the outcome of the hostage swap negotiations by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or reliable international news reports
Story
Hamas Approves 34-Hostage Swap Conditional on Ceasefire; Israel Denies Receiving List
Jan 5, 2025, 08:04 PM
Hamas has reportedly approved a list of 34 hostages, including women, children, and the sick, proposed by Israel to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners as part of a potential ceasefire agreement. The information, reported by Reuters citing an unnamed Hamas official, indicates that the approval of the list is contingent upon Israel agreeing to withdraw its forces from Gaza and establishing a permanent ceasefire. However, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office has denied receiving any such list, stating that Hamas has not provided a list of hostage names up to this moment. The conflicting reports come amid ongoing negotiations in Doha, Qatar, aiming to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas since the escalation of conflict in Gaza.
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Similar markets
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Exchange Completed • 25%
Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Deal collapses • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Ransom Paid • 25%
Breach Mitigated • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Rejected by Israel • 25%
Rejected by both parties • 25%
Rejected by Hamas • 25%
Approved by both parties • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%