Market
Outcome of U.S.-Taliban diplomatic relations by end of 2025?
2
Taliban•Ministry of Foreign Affairs•Afghan•Khan Mohammad•American•Afghanistan•Ryan Corbett•William McKenty•Qatar•Biden•Trump•California•Americans•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal diplomatic recognition • 25%
Statements from the U.S. Department of State, Taliban, or international diplomatic bodies
Story
Taliban Frees Americans Corbett and McKenty in Exchange for Khan Mohammad
Jan 21, 2025, 05:28 AM
The Taliban's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that an Afghan prisoner held in U.S. custody, Khan Mohammad—convicted on narcotics and terrorism charges—has been released in exchange for two American citizens detained in Afghanistan, Ryan Corbett and William McKenty. The exchange, facilitated by Qatar after lengthy negotiations, was secured in President Biden's final hours but carried out under President Trump due to delays. Khan Mohammad had been serving a life sentence in California following his arrest in Afghanistan in 2006. The two Americans are reportedly en route back to the United States.
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Peace talks • 25%
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
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Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
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Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Counterterrorism • 25%
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Turkey • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
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