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Next major U.S.-Taliban diplomatic action by mid-2025?
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Afghanistan•Taliban•American•Ryan Corbett•William McKenty•Afghan•Khan Mohammad•Jalalabad•California•Qatar•Biden•Donald Trump•Americans
Resolution / Starting Odds
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government, Taliban, or major news outlets
Story
Taliban Free Americans Corbett and McKenty in Swap for Afghan Khan Mohammad
Jan 21, 2025, 06:18 AM
Afghanistan's Taliban government announced the release of two American citizens, Ryan Corbett and William McKenty, in exchange for an Afghan prisoner, Khan Mohammad. Khan Mohammad was arrested in 2006 near Jalalabad and sentenced to life imprisonment in California on narcotics and terrorism charges. The prisoner exchange was facilitated by Qatar after lengthy negotiations. The deal was finalized by the Biden administration but carried out under President Donald Trump. The families of the Americans have confirmed their release.
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Similar markets
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal diplomatic recognition • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Humanitarian aid initiative • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Counterterrorism • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
Russia • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful swap completed • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%