Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations by May 2, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the involved governments or credible international news agencies
Story
Trump Assigns Kellogg to End Ukraine War in 100 Days, Vows Personal Oversight
Jan 22, 2025, 07:05 AM
President Donald Trump, who had pledged during his campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine war "before even taking office," has appointed retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine, tasking him with resolving the conflict within 100 days, according to The Wall Street Journal. Despite his earlier promise to end the war within 24 hours, Trump acknowledges the complexity of the situation, humorously remarking, "It's been half a day. I have half a day left. We'll see." Trump intends to personally oversee the negotiations, with Kellogg expected to implement strategies outlined in a peace plan that criticizes the previous administration's approach. Skepticism remains among observers about the feasibility of ending the conflict within the set timeframe, especially as reports suggest Kellogg may not have access to the actual negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased US support for Ukraine • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Full Peace Agreement • 25%
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Ukraine remains neutral, no NATO membership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
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Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
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Partial agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%