Market
Outcome of Syria's political transition by June 30, 2025?
2
United States•Travis Pete Timmerman•American•Missouri•Damascus•Syria•Timmerman•Hungary•Christian•US•Antony Blinken•Jordan
Resolution / Starting Odds
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
International news agencies and reports from the United Nations
Story
American Travis Pete Timmerman, 29, Found in Syria After Assad's Fall; US Seeks His Return
Dec 13, 2024, 04:05 AM
The United States is working to bring home Travis Pete Timmerman, a 29-year-old American citizen from Missouri who was found on Thursday in Damascus, Syria, after being detained for seven months. Timmerman, who had been missing since he disappeared from Hungary in June, said he was imprisoned after crossing into Syria on foot on a Christian pilgrimage. He was among thousands released from the country's notorious prisons after rebels reached Damascus over the weekend, leading to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Timmerman called his release a 'blessing.' US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed efforts to repatriate Timmerman during meetings in Jordan discussing Syria's political transition. The US believes an individual seen in a video circulating online could be Timmerman.
View original story
Similar markets
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Return of Assad's regime • 25%
Stable government formed • 25%
Ongoing political instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial political reforms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Transition to an inclusive government • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
New government established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
New leader from Assad's party • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains in power • 25%
Opposition leader takes power • 25%
Interim government • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Other • 25%