Market
Outcome of Syrian Civil War by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
Russia Has No Plan to Save Assad as Rebels Advance and Syrian Army Retreats, Says Kremlin Source
Dec 6, 2024, 02:43 PM
Russia does not have a plan to save Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and does not foresee one emerging as long as the Syrian army continues to abandon its positions, according to a person close to the Kremlin cited by Bloomberg. With rebels advancing and the Syrian military retreating from key positions, concerns are growing in Moscow about the stability of the Assad regime. Russian officials reportedly believe that unless Assad's forces stop giving up their positions, there is little they can do to assist.
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
New government established • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
New government formation • 25%
Increased foreign intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in terrorist activity • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflict • 25%
Regime reestablished • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Full control and recognized government • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%