Market
What will be the outcome of the hostage negotiations mediated by Qatar by March 31, 2025?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Mossad•Israeli Security Agency•Shin Bet•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Doha•Qatar•Hamas•Gaza•Egypt•United States•Israel•Gaza war•Palestinian Islamic Jihad•Netanyahu•Islamic Jihad
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Official announcements from the involved parties or mediators
Story
Netanyahu Sends Delegation to Qatar Amid Gaza Hostage Crisis and Islamic Jihad's Suicide Claim
Jan 2, 2025, 06:33 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a delegation, including officials from Mossad, the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet), and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), to travel to Doha, Qatar, to resume negotiations on a hostage deal and ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. This move comes amid ongoing efforts to secure the release of approximately 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. The negotiations have been mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, but have faced challenges due to new conditions set by Israel, including the continuation of the Gaza war and the non-withdrawal of Israeli forces. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad reported that an Israeli hostage attempted suicide three days ago due to his deteriorating psychological state, which they attribute to new conditions set by Netanyahu's government that have delayed his release. A medical team from Islamic Jihad intervened to prevent the suicide.
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Similar markets
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Rejected by Hamas • 25%
Rejected by Israel • 25%
Rejected by both parties • 25%
Approved by both parties • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released • 33%
No agreement reached • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
Other Outcome • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
Exchange Completed • 25%
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%