Market
Outcome of hostage deal negotiations by June 30, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Deal collapses • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or international news agencies
Story
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz Backs Israel 100% in Hostage Deal, Calls for Gaza Demilitarization
Jan 15, 2025, 11:35 PM
Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has expressed strong support for Israel's position against Hamas, stating that the U.S. will back Israel 100% if Hamas breaches the current hostage deal. Waltz emphasized that Gaza must be fully demilitarized and that Hamas must be destroyed to the point where it cannot reconstitute. He also affirmed Israel's right to fully protect itself and made it clear that Hamas cannot have any role in governing Gaza moving forward. Waltz's comments were made in various interviews, including on Fox News and Dan Senor's 'Call Me Back' podcast, where he discussed the ongoing hostage negotiations and the broader objectives of the conflict. The first stage of the hostage deal would see the release of 33 hostages, including women, the elderly, and the sick, with a focus on getting Israeli-Americans out.
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No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
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Breach Mitigated • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Rejected by Hamas • 25%
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Rejected by Israel • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
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Less than 50 • 25%
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76 to 98 • 25%
50 to 75 • 25%
Exchange Not Completed • 25%
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Exchange Partially Completed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
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