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What will be the outcome of Russian military advances near Velika Novosilka by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia captures additional territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Ukraine regains some territory • 25%
Ukraine regains all lost territory • 25%
Reports from UK Defence Intelligence or other credible international defense sources
Story
UK Confirms Russia's Rapid Advances Near Velika Novosilka, Capturing 1600 km2 in Ukraine
Dec 1, 2024, 03:40 PM
The United Kingdom's Defence Intelligence has confirmed that Russia has made "rapid advances" towards Velika Novosilka, a key area for Ukraine's eastern defense. This development follows Ukraine's loss of Vuhledar in October, which has reportedly led to continued territorial losses. Between September 1 and November 30, Russian forces captured over 1,600 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained approximately 500 square kilometers in Kursk. The rate of Russian advances has accelerated monthly, despite heavy losses on their side.
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Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian victory • 25%
Russian victory • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia gains significant ground • 25%
No interception • 25%
Majority intercepted • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Minimal interception • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Retreat • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Russia launches new offensive • 25%
Other development • 25%
Ukraine launches new offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Capture Pokrovsk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian counter-offensive • 25%