Market
What will be the outcome of potential peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025?
2
Israeli•Nur Shams•Tulkarm•West Bank•Hamas•Ihab Abu Attiya•Palestinian Ministry of Health•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Abu Attiya
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements or agreements reported by major news outlets
Story
Israeli Airstrike in Tulkarm's Nur Shams Camp Kills Two Al-Qassam Brigades Members, Injures Three
Jan 27, 2025, 01:44 PM
The Israeli military conducted an airstrike targeting a vehicle in the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm, West Bank, resulting in the deaths of two members of Hamas's armed wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades. The strike killed Ihab Abu Attiya, the commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades in Tulkarm, and another member, Ramez Al-Dumairi. The Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that the attack also injured three others, with injuries ranging from light to moderate. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet confirmed the operation, stating it was a joint effort to eliminate Abu Attiya, who was involved in multiple shooting attacks. Hamas denounced the strike as a 'desperate attempt to eliminate the resistance,' and vowed to escalate their efforts in response to the ongoing conflict in the West Bank.
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Failed negotiations • 25%
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Permanent peace agreement • 25%
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No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
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No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%