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What will be the outcome of Oracle and Microsoft's negotiations for TikTok takeover by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full takeover completed • 25%
Partial takeover completed • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Oracle, Microsoft, ByteDance, or major financial news outlets
Story
Trump Administration Negotiates Oracle, Microsoft Takeover of TikTok Valued Over $200 Billion
Jan 25, 2025, 11:30 PM
The Trump administration is negotiating a deal for Oracle and a group of US investors to take control of TikTok's global operations, according to reports from NPR and other sources. Under the proposed plan, ByteDance, TikTok's China-based owner, would retain a minority stake, while Oracle would oversee the app's algorithm, data collection, and software updates. Microsoft is also reported to be involved in the talks. ByteDance values TikTok at over $200 billion. This follows a previous deal in 2020, in which Trump backed an acquisition of TikTok by Oracle and Walmart that ultimately fell apart.
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No negotiations • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Partnership with U.S. company • 25%
Change of control • 25%
Sale of U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Elon Musk acquires TikTok • 25%
Other party acquires TikTok • 25%
Larry Ellison acquires TikTok • 25%
No acquisition occurs • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Not sold • 25%
50-50 Joint Ownership • 25%
Majority U.S. Ownership • 25%
No Deal Reached • 25%
Majority Chinese Ownership • 25%
TikTok remains under current ownership • 25%
Elon Musk purchases TikTok • 25%
Another U.S. company purchases TikTok • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
No deal reached • 25%