Market
Will the TikTok deal with Oracle and Microsoft be finalized by March 31, 2025?
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Trump•TikTok•Oracle•Microsoft•ByteDance•China•Chinese•Americans•Jeff Yass•Susquehanna International Group•General Atlantic•Kohlberg Kravis Roberts•KKR•Sequoia Capital
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Oracle, Microsoft, ByteDance, or the U.S. government
Story
Trump Administration Negotiates TikTok Deal With Oracle, Microsoft; ByteDance Retains Minority Stake
Jan 26, 2025, 01:24 AM
The Trump administration is negotiating a deal to transfer control of TikTok's global operations to Oracle and potentially Microsoft, while allowing ByteDance, TikTok's China-based owner, to retain a minority stake. Under the proposed agreement, Oracle would oversee the app's algorithm, data collection, and software updates, addressing national security concerns raised by U.S. officials. The deal aims to minimize Chinese ownership of TikTok, which has been a focal point of U.S. national security discussions. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, was temporarily taken offline before a law mandating its sale or ban took effect on January 19, 2025. President Trump signed an executive order to delay the enforcement of this law, seeking to facilitate a deal. The negotiations involve current U.S. investors in ByteDance, including Jeff Yass's Susquehanna International Group, General Atlantic, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), and Sequoia Capital. TikTok's management is expected to remain in place to operate the app.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
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TikTok Banned • 25%
Divestment • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
