Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-China TikTok ownership negotiations by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
50-50 Joint Ownership • 25%
Majority U.S. Ownership • 25%
Majority Chinese Ownership • 25%
No Deal Reached • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, U.S. government, or Chinese government
Story
China Signals Willingness for 50-50 TikTok Deal in U.S. Amid Trump's Executive Order
Jan 20, 2025, 01:48 PM
China has signaled its willingness to allow a deal that would keep TikTok operating in the U.S., a shift from its previous stance of opposing any forced sale of the app. This change comes after President Donald Trump expressed openness to a 50-50 joint ownership model between U.S. and Chinese interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that companies should independently decide their operations and acquisitions, suggesting a more cooperative approach. ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming's meeting with Elon Musk last year could be pivotal in facilitating this deal. This development follows a U.S. law that banned TikTok, which briefly went offline before being restored after Trump's promise to sign an executive order to extend the period before the law's prohibitions take effect, aiming to facilitate a deal to protect national security.
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TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
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TikTok remains operational with conditions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to a single buyer • 25%
Sold to multiple buyers • 25%
Remains with current ownership • 25%
Elon Musk acquires TikTok • 25%
Other party acquires TikTok • 25%
No acquisition occurs • 25%
Larry Ellison acquires TikTok • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Approved sale to MrBeast's group • 25%
Approved sale to another group • 25%
No sale approved • 25%
Other • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Proposal modified • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
Joint venture established • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Other • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%