Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-TikTok negotiations by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok, U.S. government, or credible news sources
Story
Trump's National Security Adviser Mike Waltz Explores Options to Preserve TikTok for Donald Trump
Jan 16, 2025, 02:24 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering strategies to maintain the presence of TikTok in the United States, according to his choice for national security adviser, Florida Representative Mike Waltz. Waltz, who previously served as a counterterrorism advisor to Dick Cheney, stated on Wednesday that the administration is exploring various options to 'preserve' the popular social media platform. This initiative comes amid ongoing discussions regarding TikTok's operations in the U.S. and its implications for national security.
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Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
No Deal Reached • 25%
50-50 Joint Ownership • 25%
Majority U.S. Ownership • 25%
Majority Chinese Ownership • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 34%
No resolution • 33%
Resolution reached • 33%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
Sale to US company • 25%
No change • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Elon Musk purchases TikTok • 25%
Another U.S. company purchases TikTok • 25%
TikTok remains under current ownership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance finds approved buyer • 25%
50% U.S. ownership in joint venture • 25%
Regulation • 25%
Ban • 25%
No action • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban TikTok • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
50% stake acquired • 25%
No stake acquired • 25%
Less than 50% stake acquired • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%