Market
What will be the outcome of ByteDance's TikTok negotiations by April 8, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sale of U.S. operations • 25%
Change of control • 25%
Partnership with U.S. company • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or the U.S. government, major news outlets
Story
ByteDance Seeks TikTok Deal in U.S. with 75-Day Extension, Considers Change of Control
Jan 23, 2025, 11:55 AM
ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is actively negotiating a deal to maintain the app's operations in the U.S., according to Bill Ford, a ByteDance board member and CEO of General Atlantic. Ford expressed confidence that a solution will be reached soon, potentially by the end of the week, to prevent a ban on TikTok in the U.S. This comes after President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting a 75-day extension to enforce a ban on TikTok, which was set to be implemented unless ByteDance sold its U.S. operations. Ford emphasized that the deal is in the interest of all parties involved, including the Chinese and U.S. governments, ByteDance, and its board. ByteDance is exploring alternatives to an outright sale, such as a change of control to comply with U.S. legislation, indicating that there may be options short of divestiture.
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Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Another group wins bid • 25%
Bid is extended • 25%
MrBeast's group wins bid • 25%
No sale occurs • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
No change in ownership • 25%
Banned with no sale • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast and Jesse Tinsley's group • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok remains operational • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok banned • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast-led group • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Sold to another buyer • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Sold to MrBeast • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
Other party acquires TikTok • 25%
Elon Musk acquires TikTok • 25%
No acquisition occurs • 25%
Larry Ellison acquires TikTok • 25%