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What will be the outcome of OpenAI's funding strategy with Microsoft by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant new funding secured • 25%
Moderate new funding secured • 25%
No new funding secured • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or Microsoft, or credible reports from financial news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks to Unlock Funding by Ditching AGI Clause with Microsoft
Dec 6, 2024, 12:21 PM
OpenAI is reportedly in discussions to remove a clause in its agreement with Microsoft that limits Microsoft's access to OpenAI's most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This move is aimed at unlocking further investment from Microsoft, according to the Financial Times. The clause in question would allow OpenAI's board to determine when AGI is achieved, potentially restricting Microsoft's access to these models. The removal of this 'AGI clause' could facilitate a more open partnership, enabling Microsoft to leverage OpenAI's cutting-edge AI technology for its own products and services.
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Investment withdrawn • 25%
Investment increases • 25%
Investment remains unchanged • 25%
Investment decreases • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Decision postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Adopts a different structure • 25%
Successfully restructures into a PBC • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased stake • 25%
Microsoft divests completely • 25%
Increased stake • 25%
Restructures differently • 25%
Abandons restructuring • 25%
Successfully restructures as PBC • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Successful transition with increased profitability • 25%
Transition with moderate profitability • 25%
No transition completed • 25%
Transition but with financial losses • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Successful product integration • 25%
Partnership expanded • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Clause removed • 25%
No decision announced • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
Clause modified • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Extended timeline • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful completion • 25%