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What will be the outcome of OpenAI's restructuring plan by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully restructures as PBC • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Restructures differently • 25%
Abandons restructuring • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or legal filings
Story
OpenAI Restructures as PBC to Raise Capital Amid Elon Musk Opposition
Dec 27, 2024, 01:16 PM
OpenAI, founded a decade ago as a nonprofit research organization, is evaluating a significant restructuring of its corporate structure to better support its mission of ensuring artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity. The company's board is considering transforming its existing for-profit arm into a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), which would enable it to raise necessary capital "with conventional terms like others in this space." OpenAI acknowledged it needs "more capital than we’d imagined." The nonprofit would continue to exist, holding shares in the new PBC, and focus on charitable initiatives. This move aims to create one of the best-resourced nonprofits in history while operating a for-profit entity capable of sustaining the development of AGI. The restructuring would separate OpenAI's rapidly growing business operations from the nonprofit board currently overseeing it. The plan faces opposition from some parties, including Elon Musk.
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Similar markets
Decision postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Successfully restructures into a PBC • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Adopts a different structure • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Nonprofit arm remains unchanged • 25%
Nonprofit arm dissolved • 25%
Nonprofit arm expanded • 25%
Nonprofit arm restructured • 25%
No transition completed • 25%
Transition but with financial losses • 25%
Transition with moderate profitability • 25%
Successful transition with increased profitability • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Addition of financial experts • 25%
Addition of new tech leaders • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Significant new funding secured • 25%
Moderate new funding secured • 25%
No new funding secured • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
Other major investor • 25%
Sam Altman • 25%
Elon Musk • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Auction planned but postponed • 25%
Auction does not occur • 25%
Auction occurs • 25%