Market
What will be the nature of OpenAI's restructuring by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or filings with relevant authorities
Story
Microsoft and OpenAI Define AGI as $100 Billion Profit Milestone in 2023 Agreement, May Not Achieve Until 2029
Dec 27, 2024, 01:18 PM
Microsoft and OpenAI have established a financial definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), stipulating that AGI will be recognized once OpenAI develops systems capable of generating over $100 billion in profits. This definition arises from an undisclosed agreement made in 2023 between the two companies. Reports indicate that OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, is also considering restructuring OpenAI into a for-profit entity, potentially transforming it into a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). This shift aims to enhance capital-raising capabilities while maintaining a commitment to public benefit. OpenAI has indicated that it may not reach the $100 billion profit milestone until 2029 or later. The partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI has been under negotiation since October 2023, focusing on various aspects including revenue sharing and intellectual property rights, amid ongoing discussions about their cloud computing deal.
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Similar markets
Decision postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Adopts a different structure • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Successfully restructures into a PBC • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Abandons restructuring • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Restructures differently • 25%
Successfully restructures as PBC • 25%
Addition of financial experts • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Addition of new tech leaders • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Nonprofit initiatives halted • 25%
Increased nonprofit funding • 25%
Decreased nonprofit funding • 25%
No change in funding • 25%
No public statement • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Nonprofit arm restructured • 25%
Nonprofit arm expanded • 25%
Nonprofit arm remains unchanged • 25%
Nonprofit arm dissolved • 25%
Sam Altman • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
Elon Musk • 25%
Other major investor • 25%
Infrastructure Development • 25%
Partnership Expansion • 25%
Other • 25%
AGI Research • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%