Market
What changes will occur in OpenAI-Microsoft partnership by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or Microsoft, or credible reports from financial news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks to Unlock Funding by Ditching AGI Clause with Microsoft
Dec 6, 2024, 12:21 PM
OpenAI is reportedly in discussions to remove a clause in its agreement with Microsoft that limits Microsoft's access to OpenAI's most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This move is aimed at unlocking further investment from Microsoft, according to the Financial Times. The clause in question would allow OpenAI's board to determine when AGI is achieved, potentially restricting Microsoft's access to these models. The removal of this 'AGI clause' could facilitate a more open partnership, enabling Microsoft to leverage OpenAI's cutting-edge AI technology for its own products and services.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Investment withdrawn • 25%
Investment remains unchanged • 25%
Investment increases • 25%
Investment decreases • 25%
Increased share for Microsoft • 25%
Revenue share discontinued • 25%
No change in share • 25%
Decreased share for Microsoft • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Successful product integration • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Partnership expanded • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%