Market
Outcome of Israeli-Hezbollah conflict escalation by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
Israeli Airstrikes Target Hezbollah in Lebanon on January 12, 2025, Despite Ceasefire
Jan 13, 2025, 04:07 AM
The Israeli military conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern and eastern Lebanon on January 12, 2025, marking a significant escalation in the region. The strikes included attacks on the villages of Deir al-Zahrani and Houmine in the south, as well as the town of Arabsalim and the Bekaa Valley in the east. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that the targets included a rocket launcher, a military site, and smuggling routes along the Lebanon-Syria border used by Hezbollah for weapons trafficking. These actions were carried out despite a ceasefire agreement that had been in place since November 27, 2024, which Israel justified by stating that the targets posed threats to its security, and that ceasefire monitors had failed to address these threats adequately.
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Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
UN imposes sanctions on Lebanon • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
UN calls for peace talks • 25%
UN imposes sanctions on Israel • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Other outcome • 25%