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What will be the outcome of Israeli military presence near Damascus by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
The outcome can be determined based on reports from international news agencies and statements from the involved governments.
Story
Israeli Forces Reach 25 km from Damascus After 250 Airstrikes
Dec 10, 2024, 07:03 AM
Israeli military forces have advanced into southern Syria, reaching approximately 25 kilometers (16 miles) southwest of Damascus, according to multiple security sources, including Reuters. In the past 48 hours, the Israeli Air Force conducted over 250 airstrikes, targeting and destroying the Syrian Navy, Air Force, and chemical weapons facilities. Israeli tanks have advanced beyond the buffer zone past Quneitra and are now stationed near the town of Qatana, less than 3 kilometers away, which is about 20 kilometers from the Syrian capital. Nine villages in the southern Damascus countryside are now under Israeli control. The incursion represents a significant escalation in regional tensions.
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Outcome remains disputed • 25%
Confirmed incursion • 25%
No incursion confirmed • 25%
Partial incursion confirmed • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Prolonged deployment due to ongoing threats • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no incidents • 25%
Escalation into wider conflict • 25%
Deployment leads to peace negotiations • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Expansion of control • 25%
Continued presence with limited engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal without conflict • 25%
Extended military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing occupation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Withdrawal without conditions • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
New security agreement reached • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Israel maintains presence • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%