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What will be the outcome of Iran-Western oil sanctions negotiations in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions remain unchanged • 25%
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New sanctions are imposed • 25%
Official announcements from Iranian or Western governments or credible international news sources
Story
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Control 50% of Oil Exports to China Using Shadow Fleet and Front Companies, Generating Over $50 Billion Annually
Dec 18, 2024, 09:15 AM
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of Iran's oil exports, according to Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders. This increase from about 20% three years ago has been facilitated through a shadow fleet of tankers and front companies, primarily selling oil to China, Iran's biggest buyer. Despite stringent Western sanctions reimposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, Iran continues to generate more than $50 billion annually from oil exports, with revenues reaching $53 billion in 2023, $54 billion in 2022, $37 billion in 2021, and $16 billion in 2020. This remains its largest source of foreign currency and its main link to the global economy, with oil output topping 3.3 million barrels per day. The Revolutionary Guards' growing influence in the oil sector not only bolsters their economic power but also complicates the effectiveness of Western sanctions, given their designation as a terrorist organization by the U.S. Iran's oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, has dismissed reports of declining oil exports as part of 'psychological warfare' by enemies, asserting that Iran faces no issues in selling oil.
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